Crack The Code & Improve Your Edge

GM, this is Currencies & Coffee. We spread the FX insights like butter on toast—smooth, even, and covering every corner.

Here's what we have covered today:

☕ Central Banks' Decisions & Global Inflation Updates

☕ Master Weekly Market Analysis To Improve Your Edge

☕ EURCAD & NZDUSD Sell Setups

🗞️Movers & Shakers🗞️

Let's break down the key financial events this week, focusing on what really matters for your trading strategies:

• RBNZ Policy Decision (April 10, Wed): The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely hold interest rates at 5.50% again. Given the lack of major data shifts from New Zealand, expect the RBNZ to stick to its guns, keeping rates restrictive without any new economic forecasts or press conferences to shake things up.
• U.S. Inflation Data (April 10, Wed & April 11, Thu): Eyes on the U.S. as inflation data rolls out. With both headline and core inflation expected to show a slight ease month-on-month but an annual uptick, these figures could influence Fed rate cut speculations. Producer prices following on Thursday might also hint at future inflation trends, so stay tuned for potential USD movements.
• BOC Policy Statement (April 10, Wed): After a mix of strong GDP and softer inflation/jobs data, the Bank of Canada is anticipated to keep its rate steady at 5.00%. This decision, coming in hot after the U.S. CPI reports and just before the FOMC minutes, could lead to interesting CAD volatility.
• FOMC Meeting Minutes (April 10, 6:00 pm GMT): The latest Fed meeting minutes are more crucial than ever with recent labour market strength and varied Fed member opinions. Traders will be looking for any hints on the Fed's outlook for growth and inflation and what might prompt policy shifts in 2024.
• China’s CPI and PPI Data (April 11, Thu): As China potentially turns an economic corner, inflation data will be key. With consumer prices expected to grow more modestly month-on-month and a slight improvement in producer prices, these releases could impact the yuan's trajectory.
• ECB Decision and Presser (April 11, Thu): The ECB is set to keep policies unchanged, but the post-decision press conference will be closely watched for any hints towards a June rate cut. Traders will be keen on discovering any clues about inflation expectations and key data points the ECB monitors.

Mastering Weekly Market Analysis

Throughout my experience as a trader, I have realised that the preparation and planning I put into the upcoming trading week has a significant impact on my performance. By doing this, I can concentrate my efforts on the specific setups that I plan to execute. In today's discussion, I will outline the steps that I take to prepare for the trading week as a trader who has earned over seven figures.

I suggest you all start by dedicating time on Sundays or Mondays to conducting your analysis; you can create a concise watchlist of 3-5 currency pairs for the week. This targeted approach helps prevent overwhelm and enables you to stick to your trading plan more easily.

The Power of Weekly Market Analysis: Performing market analysis at the beginning of the week sets the foundation for your trading decisions. By analyzing the charts, economic calendar, and key events, you gain a comprehensive view of the market landscape. This bird's eye perspective helps identify potential trends, patterns, and significant support/resistance levels, allowing you to align your trading strategy with the most promising opportunities.

Streamlining Your Watchlist: With many currency pairs available for trading, it's essential to streamline your watchlist. By selecting 3 to 5 pairs to focus on each week, you can dedicate your time and attention to these specific setups. This approach minimizes distractions, reduces information overload, and enhances your ability to thoroughly analyze and monitor your chosen pairs.

Remember, quality over quantity is the key to success.

To create an effective watchlist, consider a variety of factors:

• Identify the major currency pairs that align with your trading strategy and offer high liquidity.
• Analyze the economic calendar to highlight upcoming events, such as central bank announcements or significant economic releases that may impact your selected currency pairs.
• Utilize technical analysis techniques to identify potential trade setups, trends, and key support and resistance levels.
• Consider correlations between currency pairs. It is beneficial to have a mix of positively and negatively correlated pairs on your watchlist.

Sticking to Your Plan: Once you've crafted your watchlist, it's crucial to stick to your plan throughout the week. Resist the temptation to deviate from your selected pairs and maintain discipline in executing your trades. Staying focused and trading the setups that align with your analysis increases the likelihood of consistent profitability and reduces emotional decision-making.

Action Steps:

1️⃣ Schedule dedicated time on Sundays or Mondays for your weekly market analysis.

2️⃣ Select 3-5 currency pairs that align with your trading strategy and offer favourable trading opportunities.

3️⃣ Conduct a thorough technical and fundamental analysis of your chosen pairs, considering key levels, trends, and upcoming events.

4️⃣ Use trade management tools and proper risk management techniques to ensure disciplined trade execution throughout the week.

SIP,  LAUGH,  TRADE 😁

📈LATTE LINEUP📈

-EURCAD-

HTF (12-HR): The price recently made a new lower low and has now retraced back to the 100% Fibb level and previous high. This is the last area for the sellers to enter the market, and a break above these highs will signify a shift in trend. I'll wait for a bearish rejection or engulfing candles from this zone to show the sellers are gaining some strength before looking for an entry in the shorter time frame.

LTF (1-HR): Following our HTF confirmations, I'll be waiting for the bearish pressure of the HTF to cause a shift in market structure in the lower time frame from higher highs and higher lows to lower highs and lower lows. Once we have a break and retest of an LTF support confirmed by bearish rejection or engulfing candles, I'll seek a sell position. My stop loss will go above the previous highs, and my target will be the previous HTF low.