Demystifying CPI, Tackling USD Weakness & Timeframe Mastery

Good morning, fellow traders! Welcome to this Tuesday's edition of Currencies and Coffee, your go-to source for all things Forex.

Here’s what we’ve got for you today:

☕Movers and Shakers: CPI, rates, and hiring shifts!

☕Potential USD weakness across the board

☕Tick Tock: How finding your time frame unlocks Forex profits

🗞️MOVERS & SHAKERS🗞️

  • U.S. CPI Face-off (Apr. 12, 12:30 pm GMT) - Buckle up for Uncle Sam's headline and core CPI face-off! These crucial numbers will shine a light on the Fed's potential next moves. Current expectations suggest a slowdown in inflation, with headline inflation dipping from February's 0.4% MoM increase to 0.2% in March and core inflation dropping from 0.5% to 0.4%. Stay vigilant and ready to act!


  • BOC's Rate Decision & Presser (Apr. 12, 2:00 pm GMT) - We're heading north for the Bank of Canada's policy decision! While interest rates are expected to remain at 4.50%, the BOC's economic outlook could sway the Loonie's destiny. Keep a close eye on the presser at 3:00 pm GMT for market-moving surprises!


  • FOMC Meeting Minutes Unveiled (Apr. 12, 6:00 pm GMT) - Let's take a peek behind the curtain as the Fed's March meeting minutes reveal the committee's thought process on interest rates, liquidity, and inflation. But remember, the latest weak jobs and PMI data came after the meeting, so treat hawkish remarks with a grain of salt!


  • Australia's Employment Report (Apr. 13, 1:30 am GMT) - After February's impressive job gains, Australia might be in for a hiring slowdown in March. Forecasts indicate 21.2K new jobs, down from 64.6K previously, and a slight increase in the unemployment rate from 3.5% to 3.6%. Keep a close watch on the Aussie as events unfold!


  • U.S. Retail Sales Saga (Apr. 14, 12:30 pm GMT) - Prepare for a potential dip in U.S. consumer spending. Headline retail sales could see a 0.5% monthly drop, while the core reading might fall by 0.4%. If the decline is steeper than February's 0.4% dip in headline retail sales and 0.1% fall in core sales, Fed tightening expectations may need to be reevaluated. Stay alert and ready to react!

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Credit: Forexfactory.com

📈LATTE LINE UP 📈

Ready to groove to the beat of the market? It's time for this week's Latte Lineup!

-XAUUSD-

HTF (8-HR): Gold has been playing hide-and-seek, stuck in a recent range, only to break out and create a shiny new higher high! Now, we're witnessing a retracement back to the 50% Fibonacci sweet spot, which cosies up to the previous high and resistance level at the $1,990 mark. Buyers are making a comeback with a powerful rejection candle at this area of confluence.

Ready to ride the golden wave? Let's zoom in and scout a potential entry on a shorter time frame!

LTF (1-HR): After the 12-hour rejection, let's examine how the buying pressure is shaping up on the shorter time frame. With the price forming lower lows and lower highs, we're on the lookout for a new higher high, followed by a retest of the previous LTF high and resistance as support.

Once we spot a rejection or engulfing candle, it's time to consider going long! Set stops below the previous low and target the previous 12-hour high around $2030, aiming to ride the HTF trend.So, let's wait for the market structure to break and get ready to pounce on this long opportunity.

-USDCHF-

HTF (8-HR): The USDCHF pair is cooking up some intrigue! After being range-bound, it broke out to the downside, forming a brand-new lower low. The price then pulled back, retracing to retest the previous support around 0.9120 as resistance.

And what do we have here?

A rejection candle dancing with the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the trendline - a tantalising trio of confluence for a potential reversal. Now, let's grab our magnifying glasses and see if the selling pressure continues on the shorter time frame!

-LTF (30-mins): After the HTF rejection, we're curious to see the selling pressure ripple into the 30-minute time frame, stirring up a shift in market structure. Patience is key - let's wait for the price action to unfold, then keep an eye out for a lower low, followed by a retracement to retest intraday support as resistance. Just like waiting for that perfect cup of coffee, patience is key.

Once we spot a rejection or engulfing candle, it's time to consider an entry! Set stops above the previous high and aim for targets around 0.9000, as we ride the waves of this thrilling market adventure.

Tik Tok: How Finding Your Time Frame Unlocks Profits

Today, we're talking about a key factor in successful forex trading - knowing your time frame. Knowing whether you're a sprinter or a marathon runner helps you develop a plan that plays to your strengths and gives you the best chance for success.

As someone who's been around the forex block a few times, let me tell you - finding your time frame is crucial. Are you a scalper who likes to make quick trades and move on? A day trader who likes to capitalise on market movements throughout the day? A swing trader who holds onto positions for a few days to capture larger moves? Or a position trader who's in it for the long haul?

Knowing your time frame will help determine which strategies and approacheswork best for you. It will also help you manage your risk and make informed trading decisions. And trust me, it's worth taking the time to figure it out.

When I first started trading, I was all over the place. I tried to do everything simultaneously - scalping, day trading, swing trading, and holding positions overnight. But I wasn't making consistent profits, and I was getting frustrated. It wasn't until I took a step back and evaluated the time frame that I realised I was a swing trader at heart. Once I focused my efforts on swing trading, my profits started to increase, and I was able to develop a more consistent and profitable trading plan.

The bottom line is this - knowing your time frame will help you find your niche in the forex market. It will help you understand the types of trades that will be best suited to your personality, lifestyle, and goals. So take the time to figure out your time frame and develop a plan that works for you. Your profits will thank you!

Caffeinated Reads

Silicon Valley Bank Failure: Are We Headed for Another Financial Crisis?

Find out why the recent failure of Silicon Valley Bank has experts worried about the stability of the financial sector and the potential for another crisis.

Goldman Sachs No Longer Expects Fed to Hike Rates in March. Learn why Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for a March interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and what it means for the economy and financial markets.

The Great Hiking Cycle Ends as Yields Drop Below Cash. Learn why bond yields dropping below cash indicates a potential end to the great hiking cycle, and how this impacts the economy and investors.

Sip, Laugh, Trade 😁


That's all for now, folks! Stay tuned for our next edition, and as always, happy trading!

Cheers,
The C&C Team