Pls Stop the Self-Sabotage!

GM. This is Currencies & Coffee, the newsletter that makes sense of cents (and dollars) in a snap.

Here’s what we have covered today:

☕ Global Inflation Data to Rock the Market

☕ People With These 5 Habits Will Never Succeed

☕ $9,400 Profit Trade Breakdown, GBPAUD & EURUSD Setups

🗞️Movers & Shakers🗞️

Here's a quick heads-up on some crucial economic data releases this week. These could be game-changers for currency movements, so let's get straight to the point:

• Switzerland CPI (Jan. 8, 7:30 am GMT): Analysts expect a 0.1% month-over-month decrease in Swiss inflation. A steeper drop could signal a potential dovish shift from the Swiss National Bank, possibly affecting the Swiss Franc.
• Australia CPI (Jan. 10, 12:30 pm GMT): Forecasters anticipate Australia's annual CPI to ease from 4.9% to 4.5%. A higher-than-expected figure might reinforce the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate hike considerations, potentially boosting the Aussie dollar.
• U.S. CPI (Jan. 11, 1:30 pm GMT): The U.S. is expected to see a 0.2% month-over-month increase in headline inflation, potentially raising the year-over-year rate from 3.1% to 3.2%. Core inflation is also projected to rise by 0.2% monthly, reaching an annual rate of 4.0%. Higher figures could support a continued firm stance on interest rates by the Fed, strengthening the U.S. dollar.
• U.S. PPI (Jan. 12, 1:30 pm GMT): The Producer Price Index is predicted to show a 0.2% monthly increase for both core and headline figures after a flat reading in November. This data could influence the Fed's policy decisions, impacting the dollar.
• China CPI and PPI (Jan. 12, 1:30 am GMT): China's year-over-year CPI is expected to show a 0.4% decline, slightly less than the previous 0.5% drop. The PPI is anticipated to fall by 2.6% year-over-year, compared to a 3.0% decrease previously. These figures could affect global market sentiment, especially for commodity-linked currencies.

People With These 5 Habits Will Never Succeed

As we embark on this journey into 2024, it's vital to recognize that trading success isn't solely about market analysis and strategies. It's equally about mastering our own minds and behaviours. To help you kickstart your trading year on the right foot, let's explore five psychological habits that could potentially hinder your path to trading greatness.

1. Procrastination: The Opportunity Thief

Procrastination often masks deeper fears, such as fear of failure or the pursuit of perfection. It can lead to missed trading opportunities, increased stress, and hasty, subpar trading decisions. To combat procrastination, pinpoint its root causes and work actively to overcome them through better planning and heightened self-awareness.

2. Negative Mindset: The Roadblock to Success

A consistently negative mindset can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, hindering your trading success. It shuts down potential trading strategies, discourages taking calculated risks, and fosters a sense of trading defeat. Counter this by actively cultivating positivity in your trading routine. Focus on solutions rather than problems, learn from trading setbacks, and maintain an optimistic outlook on your trading journey.

3. Lack of Goal Setting: Trading in the Dark

Trading without clear goals is like sailing without a compass. It results in scattered efforts, lack of measurable progress, and trading dissatisfaction. Set SMART goals (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-bound) to chart your course to trading success. Regularly review and adjust them to stay on the right trading path.

4. Fear of Failure: Embrace Growth in Trading

The fear of trading failure often keeps traders in their comfort zones, preventing them from exploring new strategies and taking necessary risks. This fear usually stems from a fixed trading mindset, where abilities are seen as unchangeable. Shift to a growth trading mindset, viewing failures as stepping stones to trading mastery. Understand that each setback is a chance to learn and that success often lies outside your comfort zone.

5. Poor Time Management: The Silent Success Killer

Poor time management often connects to other psychological factors, like procrastination, fear of failure, or a lack of clear goals. It leads to stress, burnout, and reduced trading productivity. Effective time management isn't about doing more in less time; it's about doing the right things efficiently. Prioritize tasks, set realistic deadlines, and minimize distractions to enhance your trading productivity. Find a time management system that suits your trading style and stick to it diligently.

Key Takeaways for Trading Success in 2024

• Overcoming Delay Tactics: Recognize and address the reasons behind postponing trading tasks to enhance productivity and seize opportunities.
• Shifting to a Positive Trading Outlook: Transform pessimism into optimism to unlock your trading potential and embrace new trading challenges.
• The Power of Trading Goal Orientation: Establish clear, well-defined trading objectives to navigate with purpose and direction.
• Mastering Time Allocation in Trading: Adopt strategies to organize and prioritize trading time for efficiency and desired outcomes.
• Embracing Trading Risk and Learning from Setbacks: View failures as stepping stones to trading growth, fostering a mindset that welcomes challenges and learns from missteps.

SIP,  LAUGH,  TRADE 😁

📈LATTE LINEUP📈

-EURGBP-

To kick off 2024, I took a short position on EURGBP, which is currently dropping nicely towards my target. Let's take a look at my entry.

On the higher time frame (HTF) of the daily chart, we can observe that the price made a 'double top' followed by a break to the downside, creating a new lower low and breaking the previous support. We then saw a retracement to retest the previous support as resistance, which aligned nicely with the 61.80% Fib level, forming a strong area of confluence for the price reversal and continuation of the downtrend.

The return of the sellers was evident in the rejection and engulfing candles that formed from this area. Once I had my HTF confirmations, I then moved to the lower time frame (LTF) of the 1-HR to look for an entry.

To take an entry, I was waiting for the selling pressure of the higher time frame (HTF) to cause a shift in the market structure from higher highs and higher lows to lower lows and lower highs on the LTF. This shift happened when a clear 'head and shoulders' pattern formed, followed by a break of the lower time frame (LTF) support and a retest confirmed by a bearish engulfing candle. This was my signal to enter the market. I set my stop loss above the previous high and my target was the previous HTF low.

As the price moved, I took half of my profit off the table at an intermediate level and moved the position to break even. So far, I have closed just over $9,400 on this setup, and I will be looking for a continuation towards the target in the coming days.

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